The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Reds are 16-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 15-18 ATS.

Reds vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Reds starting pitcher: Graham Ashcraft 3-1, 4.40 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-3, 7.08 ERA

Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+21.40 Units / 102% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 53% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 65% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+13.40 Units / 134% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.25 Units / 70% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 17-13 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 9.54% ROI).

• 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 2.19% ROI
• 16-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 4.06% ROI
• 13-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -14.48% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 15-18 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.63% ROI).

• 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -12.36% ROI
• 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 2.23% ROI
• 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -10.6% ROI

Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.36 (95.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OPS of 1.678 (21 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.044 — first Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .328 (19-for-58) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — sixth Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has walked 3 of 61 left-handed batters (5%) this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 85th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (17 Total Bases / 17 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .360 — first Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .814 (35 Total Bases / 43 ABs) over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .358 — first Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .405 (158 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — fourth Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OPS of .970 (158 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .680 — second Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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