MLB Best Bet – August 3, 2022
The Reds move into their life post Brandon Drury and Luis Castillo. They were a terrible team to start the season, striking out like crazy and finding any way to lose. Then they hit their stride, and played halfway decent baseball for the last 2 months or so. Well…it was fun while it lasted. The Reds lineup and pitching staff has gotten worse, at least in the short term. I will look to Sandy Alcantara to take advantage of this matchup.
Sandy is the true defin ition of a work horse. His 149.1 innings are 10+ more than the next closest (Aaron Nola). He has gone 7 or more innings in 14/21 starts including 8/11 at home. While I am not taking his outs for today's prop, that will come into play as the longer he goes, the more chances he will have for K.
A 7.5 line is not something I ever thought I would take for Sandy, but there is too much to like here. While his season long K rate is 24.0%, that number has exploded to 31.3% over the last 30 days. Sandy is in the 63rd percentile in swinging strikes percentage, 61st percentile in K rate, 55th percentile in whiff rate, and 87th percentile in chase rate.'
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