The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Tuesday, September 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).

The Reds vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Reds are 80-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 79-78 ATS.

Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.45 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 65% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 80% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.65 Units / 53% ROI)
• Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 62 away games (+25.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 156 games (+19.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+17.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 60 away games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.48 Units / 40% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 141 games (+22.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 115 games (+9.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 60 games at home (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.49 Units / 22% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 93-64 against the Run Line (+18.4 Units / 8.84% ROI).

• 80-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.6 Units / 6.71% ROI
• 76-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -6.88% ROI
• 80-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -1.94% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 79-78 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -1.33% ROI).

• 74-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -10.21% ROI
• 64-89 when betting on the total runs Over for -34.75 Units / -20.02% ROI
• 89-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.1 Units / 11.09% ROI

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has struck out 37% (80/218) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 47% (15/32) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

50% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .381 (32-for-84) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .272 — first Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of .979 (271 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .731 — second Percentile.

Lucas Giolito has allowed 15 home runs on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .738 (220 Total Bases / 298 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .564 — second Percentile.

  
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