The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-150) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 60-96 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 78-78 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -160 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-83 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.37% ROI).
- 60-96 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.2 Units / -12.1% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.22% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -6.13% ROI).
- 70-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 63-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.15 Units / -15.21% ROI
- 81-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 7.01% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (95/154) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .337 (58-for-172) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (24/184) against Graham Ashcraft when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (318/423) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 55 opportunities (24%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 7 double plays in 16 opportunities (44%) this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has struck out just 7% (4/54) of right-handed batters he faced this month (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of just .739 (84 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 1.032 — 95th Percentile.