The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-130) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 60-97 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 79-78 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 64% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 54 games at home (+14.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 129 games (+13.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.11 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 60 away games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+18.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+15.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+15.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-84 against the Run Line (-19.7 Units / -10.11% ROI).
- 60-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -12.63% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.28% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.2% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 79-78 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -5.4% ROI).
- 71-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -3.04% ROI
- 63-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.15 Units / -15.11% ROI
- 81-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 6.97% ROI
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of .761 (35 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .427 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to August 23rd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (105/348) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (244/529) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (956/2,605) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has had third base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
20 of Drew Smyly’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,303/2,890) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.