The Cincinnati Reds (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 54-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 56-81 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 55% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 109 games (+17.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+7.27 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 63-71 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -8.24% ROI).
- 54-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.05 Units / -9.05% ROI
- 67-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -3.58% ROI
- 65-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -6.17% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 56-81 against the Run Line (-32.2 Units / -19.54% ROI).
- 72-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -10.55% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -3.24% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -4.31% ROI
Justin Dunn: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Dunn has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to August 8th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 12.
Justin Dunn has a strike rate of just 56% (45/81) this month (1 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Justin Dunn has a strikeout rate of just 5% (1 SO in 20 PAs) this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — fourth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Justin Dunn’s pitches (31/81) this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .077 (4 GB hits out of 52 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has walked 4 of 22 right-handed batters (18%) this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (126/354) against Brandon Woodruff on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has thrown fastballs 62% of the time (1,006/1,628) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.