The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 60-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 59-67 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today's Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday's matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We've highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+19.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+17.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 away games (+14.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 42 away games (+13.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 games at home (+16.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 46 games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 110 games (+5.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 72 of their last 126 games (+13.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+5.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-64 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.1% ROI).
- 60-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -8.89% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.9% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.5% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-67 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 67-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
- 59-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.06% ROI
- 57-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -5.7% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 39% (344/883) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season – highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 31% – 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a BABIP of .180 vs left-handed batters this season – best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .277 – 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (113/381) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season – highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 24% – 0 Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (523/1,067) with two-strikes since the start of last season – highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total CH; League Avg: 17% – 100th Percentile.
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has walked 5 of 25 left-handed batters (20%) – 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% – fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (89/312) against Joe Ryan this season – 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 43% – first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (36/125) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season – 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 45% – first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .050 (1-for-20) against Joe Ryan – 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .224 – 98th Percentile.