The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium to take on the Detroit Tigers (-110) on Tuesday, March 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Lakeland.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Tigers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 9-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 5-7 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eric Haase has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
- Eric Haase has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.30 Units / 77% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 159 games (+18.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 62 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 10-5 against the Run Line (+5.9 Units / 33.71% ROI).
- 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 35.62% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -4.23% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -3.65% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 5-7 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -11.59% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 15.75% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 42.75% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -53.38% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta walked 73 of 773 batters (9%) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (512/1,214) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Greinke had a strikeout rate of just 26% (73/281) with two-strikes last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 146 opportunities (4%) last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen had a strike rate of just 62% (234/377) when he’s behind in the count last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen walked 14 of 107 batters (13%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen walked 15 of 91 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.