The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-130) on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Red Sox are 60-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-50 ATS.

Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 10-5, 5.17 ERA
• Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 13-5, 2.57 ERA

Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 away games (+27.30 Units / 137% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+16.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+15.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+18.60 Units / 53% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+17.80 Units / 297% ROI)
• Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 54% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 68 games (+18.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 away games (+13.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 away games (+11.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 111 games (+6.80 Units / 5% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+11.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+10.29 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 games at home (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 53-58 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -8.09% ROI).

• 60-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 2.12% ROI
• 57-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 2.91% ROI
• 49-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -10.92% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 64-50 against the Run Line (+5.64 Units / 3.67% ROI).

• 63-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.1 Units / 6.3% ROI
• 49-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.75 Units / -14.35% ROI
• 61-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 5.36% ROI

Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (170/285) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (27/74) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (27/74) against Brayan Bello on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .436 (98-for-225) against Brayan Bello when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: .339 — second Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (31/177) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .252 (69-for-274) against Seth Lugo in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .321 — 98th Percentile.

Seth Lugo has allowed an OPS of just .514 (111 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .705 — 100th Percentile.

Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of just .239 (285 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 91st Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

  
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