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The Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies begin their only three-game series of the season on Monday, and we have three tasty player props from one of our best sports betting sites.
We're targeting Boston's starting pitcher, Tanner Houck, with our Red Sox vs. Rockies prediction on Monday, as his team is a heavy -180 moneyline favorite at Coors Field.
Despite losing two out of three games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, Boston is still 31-21 since May 19, which is just a half-game behind the Houston Astros for the best record in baseball in that span.
Conversely, Colorado's .382 winning percentage (21-34 record) is the National League's worst during that time, though it is coming off its second series win in the last 13 after taking two of three at home from the San Francisco Giants.
Red Sox vs. Rockies player props
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Tanner Houck to record win (-105 via Betway) ????
- Jarren Duran Over 0.5 runs (-165 via Betway) ?????
- Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 total bases (-120 via Betway) ???
Red Sox vs. Rockies expert picks
Houck is hovering around the fifth-shortest Cy Young odds in the AL. He's already hit his career high in innings pitched (the 117 is 11 more than his previous career-high of 106), and though that's something to monitor in August and September, we don't project it to affect him after such rest during the All-Star Break.
Houck's arsenal plays perfectly to the altitude of Coors Field, as he leads the league with a 0.4 HR/9 rate (five home runs allowed in 117 innings). He is also on pace for a career-low walk rate (2.0 BB/9) and has induced ground balls a career-best 54.5%.
Boston's -180 moneyline odds carry a 64.29% implied probability, so this wager is a great way to get value for it to win, as a $10 wager would pay out $19.52.
Best odds: -105 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Jarren Duran's 16 runs scored against left-handed pitchers lead the team, and though he is batting .264 in that split, his .338 on-base percentage makes up for it.
Since June 1, Duran is tied for fourth in the majors with 35 runs scored, as he has slashed .339/.391/.598 in that span. He also ranks ninth in that span with a .394 BABIP, and he can plate himself, as he followed up his All-Star Game home run with two more long balls in the series against the Dodgers.
Duran has had multi-hit games in six of the last eight, so this is our most confident five-star play in what should be a high-scoring affair at Coors Field.
With Duran getting on base so often, the 62.26% implied probability for him to score at least one run seems low, and we are jumping at the opportunity for a $16.06 payout on a winning $10 wager.
Best odds: -165 via Betway | Implied probability: 62.26%
This wager is a massive sell-high spot on Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, as he has four home runs in four games dating back to before the All-Star Break. Not only does Tanner Houck have the league's best HR/9 rate allowed, but he ranks in the 82nd percentile in barrels and the 92nd percentile in ground-ball rate.
Houck's .251 wOBA is also 72 points better than last year's career-worst .323 mark, and he's also allowed a .191 OBA and .275 slugging or better on two of his three primary pitches (slider and split-finger) which he combines to throw 68.8% of the time.
Should Tovar be held to one or fewer bases, an occurrence which carries a 54.55% implied probability, a bettor would receive $8.33 in profits on a $10 wager.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Red Sox vs. Rockies odds & game info
- When: Monday, July 22
- First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Coors Field, Denver, Colo.
- How to watch: NESN
- Favorite: Red Sox (-180 via Betway)
Red Sox-Rockies player props made Monday at 7:05 a.m. ET.
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