The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Red Sox are 76-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 78-74 ATS.

Red Sox vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 14-7, 4.64 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 7-9, 3.74 ERA

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 32 games (+14.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+11.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.45 Units / 158% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 away games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 74 away games (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+38.75 Units / 155% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.50 Units / 102% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 149 games (+24.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+15.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 143 games (+13.10 Units / 8% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 71-81 against the Run Line (-19.15 Units / -9.54% ROI).

• 76-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -4.72% ROI
• 75-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.42% ROI
• 69-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.85 Units / -7.75% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 78-74 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -2.47% ROI).

• 74-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.11 Units / -6.13% ROI
• 67-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -12.01% ROI
• 80-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 3.93% ROI

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brayan Bello has walked 6 of 27 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Brayan Bello has walked 6 of 27 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .255 (150-for-588) against Brayan Bello this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 19th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (92/165) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zack Littell has walked 8 of 355 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Littell has thrown his slider 49% of the time (298/611) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Littell has walked 8 of 350 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

13 of Zack Littell’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

  
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