The Boston Red Sox (+100) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-120) on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Red Sox are 75-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 78-73 ATS.

Red Sox vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-10, 3.25 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 8-6, 3.76 ERA

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 31 games (+15.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+11.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.45 Units / 209% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 72% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 55 away games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 73 away games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+24.80 Units / 155% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 148 games (+23.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.32 Units / 102% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 142 games (+12.10 Units / 7% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 70-81 against the Run Line (-20.15 Units / -10.15% ROI).

• 75-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -5.29% ROI
• 75-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 0.24% ROI
• 68-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -8.41% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 78-73 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -2% ROI).

• 74-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.01 Units / -5.56% ROI
• 67-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.9 Units / -11.42% ROI
• 79-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 3.36% ROI

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (276/497) against Tanner Houck this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (158/270) against Tanner Houck this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (60 Total Bases / 234 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 98th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 76% of the time (1,049/1,390) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .216 (11-for-51) against Ryan Pepiot on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .210 (49-for-233) against Ryan Pepiot when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.

Ryan Pepiot has allowed an OPS of .960 (34 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .490 — second Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .198 (62-for-313) against Ryan Pepiot since last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

  
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