The Boston Red Sox (-140) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 57-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 59-56 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+9.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 96 games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 away games (+4.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 87 games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+6.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+4.50 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 1.15% ROI).
- 57-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -5.86% ROI
- 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -7.67% ROI
- 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.35% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-56 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -3.14% ROI).
- 45-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 51-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -8.92% ROI
- 57-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.55% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (77/423) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (422/1,001) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,401/3,347) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 7.57 (44.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 3.86 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .418 (172-for-411) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .335 (64-for-191) against Mitch Keller when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .317 (122-for-385) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.
The average home run distance against Mitch Keller against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 385.7 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 399.4