The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-110) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 5:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-48 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+19.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 52 games (+18.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 away games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games at home (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-66 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.04% ROI).
- 65-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 61-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -5.76% ROI
- 64-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.74% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 88-48 against the Run Line (+30.35 Units / 16.82% ROI).
- 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.25 Units / 20.1% ROI
- 61-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -9.85% ROI
- 70-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 2.15% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .169 (26-for-154) against Michael Wacha this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (15-for-95) against Michael Wacha on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (552/1,126) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .280 (35-for-125) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 93rd Percentile.
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .703 (340 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .470 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .242 (75-for-310) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .400 (124 Total Bases / 310 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .303 (340 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — fourth Percentile.