The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Monday, September 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Red Sox are 70-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 68-69 ATS.

Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 12-6, 4.70 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 9-6, 3.94 ERA

Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Red Sox vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 40 games (+32.80 Units / 82% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 21 away games (+19.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brayan Bello has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 41 games (+24.00 Units / 59% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+10.70 Units / 97% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 65 away games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 away games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 away games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 137 games (+5.45 Units / 3% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+14.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+13.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 89 games (+12.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 63-74 against the Run Line (-18.75 Units / -10.38% ROI).

• 70-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -2.37% ROI
• 70-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.35 Units / 2.9% ROI
• 60-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.4 Units / -10.98% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 68-69 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -3.22% ROI).

• 73-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.79% ROI
• 67-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -2.56% ROI
• 64-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -5.99% ROI

Mets vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .258 (136-for-528) against Brayan Bello this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 16th Percentile.

Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .360 (225 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (54/185) against Brayan Bello this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (223/375) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (48 Total Bases / 81 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — sixth Percentile.

Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (271/644) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 18% (43 SO in 232 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 16th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .202 (43-for-213) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 89th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
Read Full Article