The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-185) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 67-89 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 59.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 away games (+23.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 52 away games (+17.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 53 away games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+16.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 53 games at home (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 42 games at home (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bo Bichette | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
| Nick Pivetta | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 away games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 63 away games (+2.90 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-76 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.49% ROI).
- 75-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -7.61% ROI
- 72-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -4.92% ROI
- 74-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -2.64% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-89 against the Run Line (-27.6 Units / -14.74% ROI).
- 87-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.1 Units / -7.46% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -2.02% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.36% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (113/589) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (884/2,034) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (496/1,174) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 67 of 730 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Alek Manoah: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .162 (51-for-314) against Alek Manoah this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah has allowed a slugging percentage of just .255 (80 Total Bases / 314 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah has allowed an OPS of just .470 (339 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .663 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .160 (82-for-513) against Alek Manoah since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.