The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Monday, September 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.

This season, the Red Sox are 78-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 77-79 ATS.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-10, 3.22 ERA
• Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 10-13, 4.17 ERA

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 45 games (+18.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Addison Barger has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+16.90 Units / 211% ROI)
• Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 50 games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+11.00 Units / 92% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+8.10 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 75 away games (+5.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Blue Jays Best Bets Today:

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games at home (+16.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 73-83 against the Run Line (-19.75 Units / -9.57% ROI).

• 78-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.7 Units / -4.54% ROI
• 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.47% ROI
• 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.15 Units / -7.72% ROI

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 77-79 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -7.71% ROI).

• 73-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.05 Units / -9.01% ROI
• 78-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.27% ROI
• 73-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -7.71% ROI

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (283/508) against Tanner Houck this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (162/278) against Tanner Houck this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 76% of the time (1,077/1,425) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (54/92) against Tanner Houck when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (179 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 80.7

Chris Bassitt has averaged 70.9 MPH on curveballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 79.6 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (35/220) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 66 of Chris Bassitt’s 354 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

  
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