The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-145) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 68-89 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 55 away games (+21.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 27 away games (+18.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 54 away games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 53 away games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+13.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 45 games at home (+13.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 56 games at home (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 128 games (+6.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 70 away games (+4.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 away games (+4.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+15.62 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 116 games (+12.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+6.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-77 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.13% ROI).
- 75-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.7 Units / -8.09% ROI
- 73-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -4.31% ROI
- 74-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -3.26% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-89 against the Run Line (-26.6 Units / -14.13% ROI).
- 88-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.1 Units / -7.01% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -1.43% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -7.95% ROI
Brayan Bello: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello allowed an OBP of .467 (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .267 — third Percentile.
The last hit on a Brayan Bello changeup was September 14th. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Bryan Baker has the longest active streak at 24.
Thomas Stripling: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 382.1 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 397.9
Ross Stripling has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (362/515) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (29/163) against Ross Stripling on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 36% (172/473) against Ross Stripling this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.