Red Sox-Brewers prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, April 21

The Boston Red Sox (10-10) and the Milwaukee Brewers (14-5) begin a three-game weekend series on Friday, April 21. First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Boston will start Nick Pivetta (0-1, 4.50 ERA), while Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta (2-1, 3.18 ERA).

The Brewers are the -170 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Red Sox are the +145 road underdogs, and the run total is set at 8.5.

Red Sox-Brewers picks: Friday, April 21

Red Sox

Out: CF Adam Duvall (wrist), RP Chris Martin (shoulder)

Brewers

Out: CF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder)

Nick Pivetta vs. Freddy Peralta

Pivetta has had a rollercoaster of a season so far. He looked solid in his first two starts and just didn't get any run support. Then the righty got knocked around by the Los Angeles Angels his last time out, allowing six earned runs on five hits. Luckily, he ended up with a no-decision.

Peralta has had a similar trajectory to start his 2023 campaign. He earned wins in his first two starts and allowed only one earned run on six hits combined. Peralta then took on the San Diego Padres and got lit up to the tune of five earned runs on nine hits in just five innings of work.

This is a tough game to pick because we have seen both Pivetta and Peralta shut out opponents this season. The reason I'm going with the over is that a) they both got rocked in their last starts and b) Boston has seen four straight games finish with at least nine combined runs, while Milwaukee has seen two of its last three finish that way.

Pick: Over 8.5

The Brew Crew have won four in a row and are coming off a sweep of the Seattle Mariners on the road. The Red Sox have gone 3-2 in their last five but got swept in their last series on the road. If both pitchers are on their games, it could be a close one, but I still think the home team takes the series opener.

Pick: Brewers

  
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