Recent NBA Finals betting trends
In recent weeks on VSiN.com, I have unveiled some of the best betting systems and trends for the early rounds of the NBA playoffs. Now, as the association moves on to the Finals after a pair of conference finals series that couldn’t have been more different, I’ll share the key info you might need to bet this Finals matchup between Denver and Miami.
On paper, this matchup is not expected to be close, with the Nuggets favored by 8.5 points in Game 1 and -450 for the series. That shouldn’t come as a major surprise considering that Denver is a No. 1 seed that won 53 games in the regular season while Miami is a No. 8 that had to survive the play-in tournament to even qualify for the playoffs. However, as the Heat have been a regular Finals participant and one of the top teams of the 21st century, the Nuggets are in search of their first championship. The series has uber stars in Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler as well as some high-quality secondary players, so it should be entertaining to watch, starting on Thursday with Game 1. Should the series go seven games, it will wrap up on Sunday, June 18.
Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that three of the last four Finals series have been seed upsets, breaking a streak of five straight wins by the better seed. Miami will attempt to run that to four out of five. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are 47-2-2 ATS over the last nine seasons, including 6-0 ATS a year ago. This is a glowing endorsement for moneyline wagering on underdogs. I’ll get into more of that later.
This is the final part of a four-part series. I hope you’ve enjoyed and profited from it, and that continues over the next couple of weeks.