Real Madrid welcomes Manchester City to the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday for the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinal. We offer our prediction and best bet based on the top Champions League odds.
The favorite and third-favorite to win the 2023-24 Champions League meet in a rematch of last season's semifinal. Manchester City hasn't tasted Champions League defeat since coughing up a late lead to Real Madrid in the second leg of the 2021-22 semifinals. The defending champs' 21-match unbeaten run includes the entirety of last season's Champions League and eight matches in the current campaign.
Real Madrid is undefeated at home in La Liga this season, taking 41 of 45 possible points at the Bernabeu. The Galacticos are also unbeaten in the Champions League, winning seven of eight. Thanks to Kevin De Bruyne's 67th-minute equalizer, City escaped Madrid with a 1-1 draw in the first leg of last season's semifinal, the last time these two juggernauts battled at the Bernabeu.
Here's our best Real Madrid vs. Manchester City prediction and soccer picks (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City game info
- Date: Tuesday, April 9
- TV: TNT Sports 2 or Discovery+ App
- Location: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
- Weather: Sunny and a high of 61 Fahrenheit
- Favorite: Manchester City (+150)
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City odds
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | +150 | -0.5 (+140) | Over 2.5 (-140) |
| Real Madrid | +185 | +0.5 (-190) | Under 2.5 (+110) |
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City prediction
Best odds: +125 via bet365
The importance of the opening 45 minutes cannot be overstated, as it will set the tone for the entire tie. While Manchester City would love to leave Spain with a victory, Pep Guardiola and company will also be satisfied with a share of the spoils, particularly considering the circumstances.
City played in the Premier League on Saturday, beating Crystal Palace 4-2 in London, providing just two rest days before their most pivotal contest of the season. City has a large enough squad to cope with the condensed schedule. However, Real Madrid enters Tuesday's first leg on nine days' rest, starkly contrasting the visitor's 48 hours. In addition, City would be pleased to welcome Real Madrid to the Etihad for the second leg on level terms.
City will ensure its defense is watertight and well-organized, prepared to batten down the hatches and absorb Madrid's almost inevitable initial onslaught. Also, Madrid is more productive and lethal after the interval, scoring 11 of 19 Champions League goals in the second half. Considering what's at stake, expect an excessively combative first half devoid of space.
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Real Madrid vs. Manchester City odds analysis
At +125, bet365 offers the best value of our best sports betting sites for parity after the first half. DraftKings offers +120, while FanDuel has +115 and Caesars +110. A $10 winning bet at bet365 pays out $22.50 and has an implied probability of 44.44%. There won't be much movement on this line in the lead-up to Tuesday's encounter, although the +125 at bet365 might shorten to more closely align with FanDuel and Caesars.
An alternative bet to consider is the full-time draw, trading at +250 at FanDuel, Caesars, and bet365. Look for the match to follow a similar script to the last time these teams met at the Bernabeu, which ended level at one.
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City prediction made Sunday at 10:39 a.m. ET.
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