The start of a college football season can be a huge emotional event for teams. All of the work that went into the offseason is put to the test in the first game. The situational enormity of the opener, including the level of opponent, can also play a role in how a team responds going forward.
Studying Game 2 results based on Game 1 performance is a form of system handicapping, and that is what I’ve done for this report. Here are five concepts to consider for teams playing Game 2.
System No. 1: FCS Letdown
Teams that faced an FBS opponent in Game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus an FCS opponent in Game 2 have gone just 62-81-5 ATS (43.3%) since 2012.
Steve’s thoughts: This is a simple concept to grasp. FBS teams have a hard time getting up for an FCS opponent after playing a more important opening game. Oddsmakers increase the pressure by installing huge lines on these games.
Teams qualifying in 2022: There are 19 FBS-versus-FCS games with massive lines in Week 2, a few more than the yearly average. These are the huge favorites that could be in letdown mode after taking on FBS opponents in their openers. A handful of these teams played in real high-profile contests last weekend.
— CLEMSON vs. Furman
— COASTAL CAROLINA vs. Gardner Webb
— GEORGIA vs. Samford
— JAMES MADISON vs. Norfolk State
— LSU vs. Southern
— MIAMI (OHIO) vs. Robert Morris
— MINNESOTA vs. Western Illinois
— N.C. STATE vs. Charleston Southern
— OLE MISS vs. Central Arkansas
— PURDUE vs. Indiana State
— RUTGERS vs. Wagner
— SAN DIEGO STATE vs. Idaho State
— SMU vs. Lamar
— SOUTH FLORIDA vs. Howard
— TCU vs. Tarleton State
— TROY vs. Alabama A&M
— TULANE vs. Alcorn State
— UCLA vs. Alabama State
— UTAH vs. Southern Utah
System No. 2: No Easy Rebound vs. FCS
FBS teams coming off a loss to an FBS opponent in Game 1 and favored by at least 24 points over an FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 32-54-1 ATS (37.2%) since 2012.
Steve’s thoughts: Losing an opener comes with a ton of disappointment for an FBS team, and having to get up and cover a big Game 2 point spread against an uninspiring FCS opponent proves very difficult.
Teams qualifying in 2022: There are eight games that fit this trend, with a couple of other big favorites just short of being 24-point favorites. Of the eight FBS teams listed, three lost as favorites last week. Don’t assume a big bounce-back effort.
— CINCINNATI vs. Kennesaw State