The Tampa Bay Rays (-135) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Rays are 43-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 50-38 ATS.

Rays vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Rays starting pitcher: Zach Eflin 4-5, 3.92 ERA
• Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh 6-5, 4.19 ERA

Rays vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Rays vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 83 games (+25.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+7.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+11.24 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games at home (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 41-45 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -6.3% ROI).

• 43-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -8.23% ROI
• 42-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -4.03% ROI
• 42-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.42% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 50-38 against the Run Line (+4.39 Units / 3.62% ROI).

• 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 7.83% ROI
• 36-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -17.48% ROI
• 48-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.2 Units / 8.54% ROI

Royals vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Eflin has walked 7 of 361 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has walked 3 of 201 right-handed batters (1%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has not walked any of the 135 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has walked 13 of 559 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Alec Marsh has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 95.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (68 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 90.3

Alec Marsh has walked 35 of 276 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 40% (20/50) against Alec Marsh when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (10/35) against Alec Marsh — tied for 11th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 11th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

  
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