The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 86-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 82-79 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-82 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.02% ROI).
- 86-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -3.38% ROI
- 70-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -9.59% ROI
- 81-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.46% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 82-79 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.47% ROI).
- 77-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.5 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -4.21% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -3.37% ROI
Josh Fleming: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Fleming has a strike rate of 71% (429/601) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 17% (27 SO in 161 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 37% — second Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 32% (90 SO in 283 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Josh Fleming has thrown inside pitches 56% of the time (337/601) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has walked 70 of 754 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,639/3,934) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (233/1,130) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of .326 (754 PA’s) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 10th Percentile.