The Tampa Bay Rays (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Thursday, September 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Rays are 71-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 74-72 ATS.

Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 8-6, 3.67 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 3-8, 5.23 ERA

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:

• Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+22.10 Units / 201% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.20 Units / 66% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 16 games (+21.50 Units / 134% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 48 games (+20.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+18.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tyler Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.25 Units / 54% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 86 of their last 143 games (+24.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 137 games (+13.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 75 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 54 away games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 146 games (+12.47 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 64 games at home (+9.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+9.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.15 Units / 26% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 75-71 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -1.75% ROI).

• 71-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -6.8% ROI
• 66-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -9.72% ROI
• 75-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 1.67% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 74-72 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 1.8% ROI).

• 84-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.47 Units / 6.6% ROI
• 67-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -6.51% ROI
• 70-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -2.28% ROI

Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .203 (142-for-698) against Ryan Pepiot since the 2022 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .167 (8-for-48) against Ryan Pepiot on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 100th Percentile.

Ryan Pepiot has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 21st — Bobby Miller has the longest active streak at 11.

Opponents are hitting just .269 (47-for-175) against Ryan Pepiot in non-two strike counts this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 96th Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Gavin Williams has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 11 innings — Logan Gilbert has the longest active streak at 21.

79% of Gavin Williams’ fastball strikeouts are elevatedsince last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 53% — 100th Percentile.

25 of Gavin Williams’ 64 strikeouts (39%) have come on curveballs this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 92nd Percentile.

Gavin Williams has thrown fastballs up 71% of the time (274/383) with two-strikes since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 96th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

  
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