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Football is officially back, and it couldn't come at a better time as baseball betting grows especially tedious. We start off with an absolute banger on Thursday night when the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
After we made our Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions, we still had plenty to choose from for our Ravens vs. Chiefs player props. Some of the AFC's most talented offensive players will play in the opener between two Super Bowl odds contenders.
Highlighting our picks is a familiar face with his new team, as Derrick Henry looks to get off to a hot start with the Ravens following eight years with the Tennessee Titans.
Will Henry see a similar rushing volume to what he experienced with the Titans, or will the Ravens start slow with the veteran?
Meanwhile, Kansas City suddenly has a plethora of receiving options, leading to more competition for targets. Will Rashee Rice continue to be featured just as he was in the second half of the 2023 season?
Do whatever you need to prepare for football again, because the 2024 NFL season is nearly here.
Ravens vs. Chiefs player props: Thursday
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- Rashee Rice Under 5.5 receptions (+106 via FanDuel) ???
- Derrick Henry Over 15.5 rushing attempts (-120 via FanDuel) ???
- Justice Hill Under 16.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ???
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
Rice was easily the Chiefs' No. 2 receiving option (and sometimes the No. 1) throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign. He went Over 5.5 receptions in five of six games from Week 12 to Week 17, drawing double-digit targets in thre e of those.
However, the Chiefs used a first-rounder on wide receiver Xavier Worthy this summer, and Travis Kelce will continue to operate as Patrick Mahomes' favorite target.
Rice is projected for just 5.15 receptions on Thursday night. Based on that number and these +106 odds via FanDuel, we're getting roughly 21.5% positive expected value on this bet.
Accordingly, we're seeing decent value on Xavier Worthy's receptions Over. It'll be interesting to see if the Chiefs do continue to heavily feature Rice, or if our best sports betting sites will be forced to adjust.
Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.54%
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Henry was an absolute machine for the Titans, leading the league in rushing attempts in four of the last five seasons (his 2021 campaign was cut short by an injury, but he was on pace for a truly absurd number of carries).
Even last year in what was Henry's most “relaxing” season since 2018, he averaged 16.5 carries per game. So, will the Ravens use him in a similar fashion?
The top projection models seem to think so, as Henry is projected to carry the ball 17.18 times. The Ravens could realistically run the football 30 times per game between Henry and Jackson, as they form a unique thunder and lightning combination that will prove nearly impossible to stop.
We're getting roughly 18% +EV on this bet thanks to these -120 odds. Our other best sports betting apps are hovering around -135 to back this Over.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel&nbs p;| Implied probability: 54.55%
In comes Henry, which means less work for Justice Hill. As we mentioned, Henry isn't a normal running back who regularly needs to take plays off, limiting the opportunities for his backups.
On Thursday, Hill is projected to record just 15.48 rushing yards.
In games that Hill didn't operate as the starter in 2023, he managed to go Over this total in six of 11 contests, but that was with Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell as the other running backs. Neither of those players is on the same level as Henry when it comes to volume.
As a result of his projection, we're getting better than 20% +EV on this bet, and FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks with the line set at 16.5. The rest are at 15.5.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
Ravens vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Ravens vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock, DAZN
- Weather: 83 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds
- Favorite: Chiefs (-150 via bet365)
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