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The 2024-25 NFL season kicks off with a standalone game on Thursday night, an AFC Championship Game rematch between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are the first back-to-back Super Bowl champions since 2004 and begin their quest to become the first team ever to three-peat. They're rightfully atop the Super Bowl odds and heavily featured in our Super Bowl predictions ahead of kick off.
This is the fourth opening week matchup in NFL history between the reigning Super Bowl champion and the reigning MVP (Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won MVP last year). In each of the previous three instances, the defending champions won the game.
How does that tidbit factor into my Ravens vs. Chiefs odds and early leans as we break down the special edition of the Sunday Night Football odds?
Ravens vs. Chiefs odds
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- Chiefs best odds: -148 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 59.68%
- Ravens best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.48%
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The Chiefs are anywhere from -148 to -155 moneyline favorites by the NFL Week 1 odds, which is up from the consensus odds of -145 the summer. Given Patrick Mahomes' 4-1 head-to-head career record against Jackson, I would expect those odds to rise if they move before Thursday.
Follow the line movement via our NFL scores page.
- Chiefs best odds: -3 (+100) via bet365
- Ravens best odds: +3 (-115) via Caesars
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All of our best NFL betting sites have this game as a field-goal spread, which is up a half-point from the summer. It would take a significant amount of betting action on either side to move the line off the key number, and oddsmakers would likely be reluctant to ever go to +3.5 figuring Ravens backers would support them in droves at that number.
- Over best odds: 46.5 (-108) via DraftKings
- Under best odds: 46.5 (-105) via FanDuel
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Just like with the point spread, our best sports betting sites are in unison with a 46.5-point total. Given the public's infatuation with Mahomes and the fact that the Ravens finished fourth in scoring (28.4 points per game) last year, this O/U should only rise between now and Thursday.
My early Ravens vs. Chiefs lean
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Baltimore attempted 10 rushes for 53 yards in last year's AFC Championship Game, and both marks were the fewest in any game in Jackson's career. I would not expect the same offensive approach in this game, especially after Baltimore added Derrick Henry this offseason.
The veteran back has double-digit rushing touchdowns in six consecutive seasons, and his 8,268 rushing yards since 2018 are the most in the NFL.
Baltimore is one of five teams in NFL history to have a two-time MVP and an Offensive Player of the Year on the same roster. But it is the Ravens' defense that ranked first in points per game (16.5), second in total QBR (42), third in yards per play (4.6), first in sacks (60), first in yards per pass attempt (5.9), and tied for first in takeaways (31). I expect that unit to have the biggest impact on this game.
The Chiefs had an eight-game Week 1 winning streak snapped by the D etroit Lions last year, and the Ravens have the formula behind a strong running game and one of the NFL's best defenses to pull a similar upset.
Given Kansas City's offseason turmoil, it is more likely the spread will move to -2.5 than -3.5. I am grabbing the +3 at the best price that I can early in the week.
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How to watch Ravens vs. Chiefs
- When: Thursday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 84 degrees, 22% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph W
- Favorite: Chiefs (-148 via DraftKings)
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