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The Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions kick off the third of four primetime games in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football as our Week 1 NFL predictions roll on.
Detroit and Los Angeles met in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs, and the Lions' subsequent 24-23 win was their first playoff victory since 1991. I consider that hard-fought battle when analyzing the Sunday Night Football odds.
This matchup will always be filled with excitement as long as Matthew Stafford is the Rams quarterback. He will be returning to Detroit, where he quarterbacked for the first 12 years of his career. However, my Rams vs. Lions player prop prediction focuses on one of Stafford's veteran receivers who is getting overlooked entering the season.
Best Rams vs. Lions picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Rams +4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Lions ???
- Player prop: Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown scorer (+140 via BetMGM) ????
Rams vs. Lions spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
There are few better ways to dominate time of possession in a road environment and take the crowd out of a game than by having a strong running game.
Los Angeles is equipped to do that with Kyren Williams, who ranked first among running backs last season in touches per game (21.7) and rushing yards per game (95.3), second in scrimmage yards per game (112.5), second in fantasy points per game (21.3) and third in scrimmage touchdowns (15).
Stafford's 75 QBR last season when not pressured ranked eighth, but that dropped to 17th when he was pressured. That was the fifth-largest decline among all qualified quarterbacks in the NFL.
< p class=''>Detroit's pass rush and secondary is beatable, as its pass defense allowed the most 20-yard plays (69), allowed the second-most yards per attempt (7.8), and ranked 27th in passing touchdowns allowed (28) last season.
After holding firm at +3.5 for most of the week, late money has driven the line up a point, but I will take that extra value and prefer to remain on the contrarian side with this play.
A winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Rams vs. Lions player prop
Most of our best sports betting sites offer nearly the same odds for wideouts Kupp and Puka Nacua to score a touchdown, and while many bettors will be swayed Nacua's way after last year's breakout season, I am siding with the veteran.
Nacua and Kupp played 12 full games together last season. While Nacua had 302 more yards, he had just three more receptions, one more target, and one fewer touchdown than Kupp (four compared to Kupp's five).
The Rams ran the ball 477 times last season, the most in any season under head coach Sean McVay. However, Stafford threw for 367 yards in the playoff meeting, and I expect a similar offensive game plan in this rematch.
There is a big discrepancy between BetMGM's +140 odds and those sportsbooks on the other end of the market, like FanDuel's +120 price for Kupp to score a t ouchdown.
Thus, I am making this $10 wager at BetMGM and will enjoy the $2 extra in profits ($14 compared to $12) if Kupp finds paydirt.
Rodrigo Villagomez is also backing Kupp and his teammate Puka Nacua in his Rams vs. Lions player props.
Best odds: +140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 41.67%
Rams vs. Lions odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Rams vs. Lions
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Lions (-225 via BetMGM)
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