Raiders vs. Lions Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 8 – Monday Night Football

Two teams coming off losses by a combined 50 points meet on Monday Night Football as the Detroit Lions host the Las Vegas Raiders, and we make our top Raiders vs. Lions prediction based on the best NFL odds.

The Las Vegas Raiders started Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 7 and things did not go in their favor. Hoyer lost his 13th consecutive start as the Raiders fell 30-12 to the Chicago Bears. It was Las Vegas' fourth game this season with committing three or more turnovers (0-4 in those games), and it has scored 21 or fewer points in eight consecutive games dating back to last season for the first time since 2012-13.

The Detroit Lions were blown out 38-6 on the road against the Baltimore Ravens, snapping a four-game win streak. In the process, the Lions also snapped a franchise record streak of 15 consecutive games with 20-plus points scored. 

< p class=''>Here is our best Raiders vs. Lions prediction for Monday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Raiders vs. Lions prediction: Monday Night Football

High-profile games like Monday Night Football tend to be more exploitable from a betting perspective. The general public tends to get involved more with primetime games, which leads to inflated lines. Despite Detroit's poor showing last week, we expect it to be the much more heavily bet side since it had rattled off four consecutive wins by 14-plus points for the first time since 1969-70 while recording its first four-game winning streak since 2016. The public will view a loss to a Super Bowl contender like the Ravens (whom Jared Goff is now 0-3 against in his career) as a much better loss than losing to the Chicago Bears, who had former Division II quarterback Tyson Bagent making his first NFL start.

We can throw much of Las Vegas' inefficiencies against Chicago out the window since it expects to have Garoppolo back under center this wee k, and Hoyer has long proven his best days are behind him. Garoppolo entered this season with the third-best completion percentage (68%) since 2017 while also ranking first in yards per attempt (8.3) and yards after catch per completion (8.3) in that span.

Even with Bagent under center, Chicago always seemed to be a bad matchup for the Raiders, given that Las Vegas entered last week ranked 28th in EPA against the run, while Chicago's rushing offense was fourth in EPA. However, the Raiders defense also entered the week ranked fourth in dropbacks EPA and 12th in EPA per play, so they should limit Goff's offensive ceiling as long as they do not get dominated in the trenches.

Detroit's running game took a massive hit when bell-cow running back David Montgomery was expected to miss a few weeks with a rib injury. Montgomery is one of 12 players with six-plus touchdowns this season, and the Lions attempted 53 passes and just 14 runs with him absent in Week 7. That had something to do with the negative game script, but to some extent, it was also likely that head coach Dan Campbell does not trust rookie Jahmyr Gibbs as a featured back like he does Montgomery. With Detroit's running game compromised and Garoppolo returning to signal-caller duties, we are making the Raiders a three-star play to stay within this number.

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Raiders vs. Lions best odds

We view the extra half-point offered at FanDuel and BetMGM as well worth it for Raiders backers, as now the Lions would have to win by two possessions for us to lose this wager. We would not put anyone off waiting until later in the week to see if they could take advantage of a better number (+9 or higher), as it is likely that our best sports betting apps will be inundated with Lions money all week. 

Raiders vs. Lions odds for Monday Night Football

Raiders vs. Lions odds analysis

The only one of our best sports betting sites that has not already moved the line in Detroit's favor since Monday morning is bet365 (who has stayed frozen at Lions -8), as all other sportsbooks have risen to their current point spread from an opening number of -7.5.

The Lions have been one o f the most popular favorites of the week, attracting more than 3/1 (77/23) of the early point spread wagers. Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning record.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks with a total of 44.5 points, as all other competitors are a half-point higher at 45. BetMGM and DraftKings have increased their totals from opening numbers of 44.5, while the O/U has bounced back and forth between 44.5 and 45 at Caesars and bet365 since Monday morning.

Monday Night Football game info

• When: Monday, Oct. 30 at 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
• How to watch: ABC/ESPN
• Weather: Indoors

Raiders-Lions prediction made 10/24/2023 at 4:12 p.m. ET

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