Our Purdue vs. Ohio State prediction based on the best college basketball odds expects a big afternoon from Braden Smith and the Boilermakers.
This season has gone worse than Ohio State Buckeyes fans could have ever imagined, and now the big bad Purdue Boilermakers are coming to Columbus to make everything that much worse.
This will be Ohio State's first game since firing head coach Chris Holtmann after an eight-point loss to the Wisconsin Badgers on the road earlier in the week, and it couldn't be against a tougher opponent.
In the chaotic Big Ten, in which it feels as if a ranked team loses every week, No. 2 Purdue has been the one constant, led by national player of the year favorite Zach Edey. Nobody can seem to stop the Boilermakers' offense, especially with the emergence of guards Lance Jones and Braden Smith. With those two on the outside and Edey on the inside, it could be a long afternoon for the Buckeyes.
Interim head coach Jake Diebler leads an Ohio State team that's 2-9 in its last 11 and has taken its lumps on defense over that stretch. It doesn't look like this will be the week the Buckeyes' talented roster figures it out and slows down one of the most dominating offenses in college basketball.
Here is our best Purdue vs. Ohio State prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Purdue vs. Ohio State prediction
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings
When talking about the Boilermakers, the conversation has to start with Edey. Last season's Wooden Award winner is averaging more points per game this year and is the biggest mismatch in college basketball. But what makes Purdue a terrifying threat ahead of the NCAA Tournament – after losing in the first round last year – is guards Lance Jones and Braden Smith.
Those two are a huge reason Purdue is averaging 85 points per game (seventh in the country) and ranks second in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and second in OBPR, per Evan Miyakawa. While the metrics point to Edey as the best and most indispensable player in the country, Smith is the one with a perfect matchup against Ohio State.
The Buckeyes' defense is giving up 69.7 points per game this season, but that jumps up to 75.4 points per game in Big Ten play. The biggest problem with Ohio State's defense has been its inability to stop 3-point shooters from taking advantage of its lackluster perimeter defense. The Buckeyes rank 327th out of 362 in 3-point percentage allowed at 35.9%. With the hulking presence of Edey inside, that should open things up even more for Smith, Purdue's most consistent shooter from behind the arc.
This season, Smith is averaging 12.8 points per game and hitting 43.8% of his threes. While he isn't Purdue's top scoring option with Edey there, he's the perfect complement, and he ranks second only behind Edey in OBPR among Big Ten players this season.
Smith has been heating up at the right time, too, with March approaching. Over his last five games, he's averaging 16.8 points and has scored at least 14 in 10 of 25 games this season.
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Purdue vs. Ohio State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith Over 13.5 points | Braden Smith Over 13.5 points | N/A | Braden Smith Over 13.5 points | Braden Smith Over 13.5 points |
| +100 | -105 | N/A | -117 | -115 |
Our best sports betting sites have a few different options when it comes to Braden Smith hitting Over 13.5 points against the Ohio State Buckeyes. By far, the best value is at DraftKings with it being the only one of our best sports betting apps offering plus odds.
With Chris Holtmann out at Ohio State and the Buckeyes struggling defensively in the Big Ten, Smith should be able to find plenty of open looks, especially from three. Ohio State ranks just 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 11th in the Big Ten in DBPR.
Purdue vs. Ohio State odds
Purdue vs. Ohio State odds analysis
With Ohio State firing its head coach and Purdue being the best team in the Big Ten, our best sportsbooks opened with the Boilermakers as 7.5 to 8.5-point favorites. The line continues to shift in Matt Painter's program's favor, with both Caesars and bet365 having Purdue -9 and BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings having the Boilermakers -8.5. The Buckeyes are 9-15-1 ATS this season while Purdue is 14-9-2.
Given Purdue's thunderous offense this season, the total opened at 145.5 at most of our best live betting sites. It hasn't shifted much with FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars remaining there while bet365 and DraftKings have gone up to 146. Both FanDuel and DraftKings are offering the Over at -102. Ohio State is 14-11 betting the Over with the Boilermakers being an impressive 17-8.
Purdue vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Sunday, Feb. 18 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
- How to watch: CBS
Purdue-Ohio State prediction made Sunday at 7:51 a.m. ET.
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