The Kentucky Wildcats desperately need a win over the Providence Friars during Friday's first-round matchup, but will they get it? Read on for our Providence vs. Kentucky prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
We all remember what happened last year. Kentucky was a popular Final Four pick as a No. 2 seed, only to lose to 15th-seeded Saint Peter's in the first round. The Wildcats surprisingly haven't made it to the second weekend since 2019 or made a Final Four appearance since 2015 – and for a program with such lofty expectations – the pressure is starting to mount for head coach John Calipari and Co.
As the East region's No. 6 seed in this year's tourney, expectations might not be as high for the Wildcats (21-11), but this is still a game they should win. The Providence Friars (21-11) have lost three games in a row and four of their last five entering Frid ay's matchup.
Here is our best Providence vs. Kentucky prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Providence vs. Kentucky odds
Providence vs. Kentucky prediction
There is actually an argument that Kentucky isn't getting enough respect heading into the NCAA Tournament. Per EvanMiya's tourney simulations, the Wildcats have a 25% chance of making it to the Elite Eight and that is where I have them going in my March Madness bracket predictions.
But Providence is also a bit underrated due to its recent form. Each of the team's last three losses has actually been graded out as a victory, per ShotQuality's post-game win expectancy. Nobody is going to feel bad for KenPom's luckiest team from last year, but the Friars have been better than their recent results suggest.
Check out our March Madness best bets for Friday! Our Mike Spector went 3-1 on Thursday's games.
Providence head coach Ed Cooley has certainly been profitable as an underdog, though that's not why I'm taking the points. From a scheme perspective, I'm expecting this to be a grinder of a game in which both teams struggle to score. And a low-scoring battle tends to benefit the underdog.
The Friars are going to go under most ball screens to dare opponents to shoot, and the Wildcats are hitting only 35.4% (103rd in college basketball) from long range on the year. Providence will try to take advantage of Oscar Tshiebwe in the pick-and-roll, but this team should still get enough scoring production from the charity stripe after ranking in the top 50 in free throw rate this year.
This game honestly feels closer to a toss-up, so we are certainly happy to take a spread over one full possession. At +4 or better, this is a three-star play to jump on before tipoff on Friday.
Providence vs. Kentucky best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3.5 | +4.5 | +4.5 | +4 | +4 |
| -105 | -120 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
Check out our breakdown of the best March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.
You can't be picky when betting on March Madness games, as these lines can be pretty sharp. While we don't like the idea of eating juice, the -115 vig at BetMGM is worth it to get a 4.5-point spread. That hook could ultimately matter in a game that often comes down to college kids making free throws.
DraftKings is sitting at 3.5, for comparison, so just make sure you avoid that shop for this pick.
Providence vs. Kentucky odds analysis
Kentucky opened as a 3-point favorite, but the line had moved to a consensus of -4 as of Friday morning. The total is at 144.5 after opening at 144 and touching as high as 145.5.
Action on both the spread and Over/Under has been split nearly 50/50 through the week.
Providence vs. Kentucky game info
- Date: Friday, March 17, 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
Providence-Kentucky pick made 03/15/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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