With the onset of the 2023 NFL season, predictions, projections, and fantasy drafts are front and center. Our unique approach leverages Vegas-based rankings, stemming from season-long player prop over/unders, to highlight deviations from ESPN's expert consensus. The idea is simple and similar to a lot of EV methodology – why trust individual experts when you can trust markets where people can put actual money on it. The wisdom of the crowds has long been smarter than individuals and Fantasy football is no different . These are meant as median rankings largely used in the first 5-7 rounds rather than give insight to sleepers and highly volatile late-round draft picks. Let's explore the nuances and the main discrepancies we found with the Vegas-based rankings and consensus rankings.
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One note I want to make is that some players due to holdouts or injuries etc don't have player prop over/ unders and were excluded from the rankings. The players excluded will be noted at the bottom. You will see gaps in ranking (for example from 4 to 6) where players are excluded to still get a sense for where the guys we do have projections for are/ would be ranked. Players will be filled in once their props are added.
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