Someone pinch me. Is it possible we're finally getting a normal 10-game slate in the Premier League? Let's hope this wonderful dream doesn't spell nightmares for our picks. Check out our best bets for Matchday 30 based on the best EPL odds.
Following a disappointing week, both with our best bets (1-3) and my fantasy team (your condolences, please), we can finally settle into some sense of normalcy in the Premier League for Matchday 30. All 20 teams play, and each plays only one match.
Both Arsenal and Manchester City enjoyed massive 4-1 wins on Matchday 29, but the big winners of the week were Newcastle, who beat both Manchester United and West Ham to move to third in the table.
Can a Newcastle side once allergic to goals continue to score with regularity, or will those issues arise again away to a quality Brentford team? United and S purs are desperately hoping for the latter.
Here are our best Premier League bets for Matchday 30 (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Premier League schedule and odds for Matchday 30
- Manchester United (-200) vs. Everton (+550)
- Brentford (+250) vs. Newcastle (+110)
- Wolves (+300) vs. Chelsea (-105)
- Spurs (+155) vs. Brighton (+170)
- Aston Villa (-160) vs. Nottingham Forest (+450)
- Fulham (+180) vs. West Ham (+165)
- Leicester (-110) vs. Bournemouth (+310)
- Southampton (+1000) vs. Manchester City (-390)
- Leeds (+110) vs. Crystal Palace (+260)
- Liverpool (+180) vs. Arsenal (+140)
Premier League best bets for Matchday 30
- Parlay: Manchester United ML + both teams to score: no (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Everton ???
- Moneyline: Newcastle (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Brentford ????
- Player prop: Ollie Watkins anytime goal (+135 via FanDuel) vs. Nottingham Forrest ???
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Premier League top picks
I bet on United to concede in their most recent match, a home win against Brentford. I won't make the same mistake against a lowly Everton side.
The moneyline aspect of this bet is fairly basic. United are one of the best home clubs in the league, managing the third-most points per home match at 2.36. Those results have come largely thanks to their strong defensive work, as they've conceded the fewest goals at home this season, leading to the fourth-best goal differential in that setting.
Meanwhile, Everton are pitiful. Don't want to just take my word for it? Fine, here are some numbers.
Everton have taken the fifth-fewest points from away matches and managed the fourth-fewest away goals and fifth-fewest expected goals away from Goodison Park. They also have the joint-lowest goal total from their top scorer, with Demarai Gray's four pacing the club. I rooted for their relegation last season and may get my wish this time around.
Most books have this parlay priced at around +120 or shorter, so take advantage of DraftKings' generous +150 offering.
Newcastle ended last season as one of the very best teams in the Premier League, but they found themselves desperately searching for goals at various points throughout this campaign.
Starting on New Year's Eve – a 0-0 draw with Leeds – and running until March 4, Newcastle managed only three goals in eight Premier Lea gue matches, unsurprisingly taking just eight points from those eight.
However, following a 2-0 away loss to Manchester City, Newcastle look like a club reborn. They've won four straight matches, outscoring their opponents 11-3 in the process, with the expected stats telling the tale of a side playing some truly beautiful football.
Brentford are no slouches, especially at home, where they've managed the seventh-most points per match. But Newcastle are also one of the league's most dominant away sides. Let's look at a little history then.
The reverse fixture took place back on Oct. 8, and it was an absolute bloodbath. Newcastle supporters exited St. James' Park celebrating a 5-1 thrashing of Brentford. I don't expect this match to finish with a similar score line, but the same team will emerge victorious.
Newcastle can be found at +11 0 at nearly all of our top-rated sportsbooks. They're still plus money out of respect to Brentford's strong season, but these are two sides moving in different directions in the table, and the Magpies will show on Saturday why they belong in the top four.
Ollie Watkins was putting together one of the most miserable campaigns of any striker, not just in the league but all of Europe. He managed only three goals from his first 20 Premier League matches after scoring a combined 25 league goals in his previous two seasons. He was then left out of England's World Cup squad.
However, Watkins apparently decided on Jan. 21 that from that point on, he would simply score all the goals. He's banged in eight in his last 10 matches, and he went from being a massive disappointment to sixth in the league in expected goals. Watkins also sits third in the league in shots on target, behind only Harry Kane and Erling Haalan d.
It has been a comeback for the ages, and a disastrous Nottingham Forest side won't stop the good times from rolling on.
Forest have conceded the second-most goals in the league and enter this contest as +450 underdogs. Instead of betting on a Villa win at -160, why not instead target their in-form striker who's scored in four of his last six matches, including the previous two tough away fixtures against Chelsea and Leicester?
Comparatively, Marcus Rashford is priced at +115 at FanDuel to score in United's match against Everton, which comes with similar moneyline implications. That's where Watkins sits at all our other top-rated sportsbooks, too.
Therefore, we're getting good value with FanDuel's price on Aston Villa's biggest goal-scoring threat in a match they're widely expected to take three points from.
Premier League Matchday 30 best bets made 4/6/2023 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
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