A pair of former interim champions are chasing a different kind of title when Dustin Poirier trades heavy leather with Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC 291 on Saturday night. Here are our Poirier vs. Gaethje UFC picks based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
On the surface, the BMF (Baddest Mother … well, you get the idea) title is a glorified gimmick. A belt to strap around someone's waist following a main event in which neither man has really tasted true gold. This won't necessarily be the case on Saturday night.
Sure, the winner doesn't really win anything other than the fight, but both Poirier and Gaethje are absolutely elite lightweights, and a stirring victory could potentially bump the victor into a title shot.
The two squared off more than five years ago, with Poirier using a thundering left hand to put a ribbon on what was a thrilling and chaotic affair. Since then, Gaethje has been a bit of a funhouse mirror reflection of Poirier. Both have captured the interim championship. Both have racked up 6-2 records. And, most importantly, both have lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira when the real title hung in the balance.
With that in mind, who will be the latest BMF? Poirier or Gaethje? Here is our best Poirier vs. Gaethje pick for UFC 291 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Poirier vs. Gaethje pick
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Considering the terrifying firepower generally unleashed by these two men, this might be seen as a bit of a risky pick. It might also be seen as a bit of a coward's pick since I didn't choose an outright winner.
That said, I feel there's some value in backing the Over. Despite the hellacious violence on display during the first fight, Poirier didn't polish Gaethje off until early in the fourth stanza. On top of that, “The Diamond” has seen the third round in each of his last two bouts, and five of his past seven. The iron-chinned Gaethje actually saw the judge's scorecards following his last trip to the Octagon, and has made it to the th ird round three times in his last five fights.
I envision more of the same on Saturday night. These tough-as-leather lightweights will inflict and absorb punishment for at least three frames with a winner being violently decided at some point in the championship rounds.
Poirier vs. Gaethje best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars | PointsBet | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -135 | -130 | -140 | -125 | -135 |
With every other sportsbook listing the Over at -130 to -140, PointsBet is the clear winner here at -125. This is the kind of fight that could go either way, so -125 for it to get just past the halfway point is a bit of a no-brainer, especially if you consider how the first fight went.
If you're backing Poirier to emerge victorious again, you can pick him up at -150 with most major sportsbooks. Those looking to throw some dough behind the underdog can snatch Gaethje as high as +130 (DraftKings).
Poirier vs. Gaethje fight info
Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
TV: PPV, ESPN+
Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT
Poirier-Gaethje pick made 7/28/2023 at 11 p.m. ET
Here are our best sports betting apps:
- FanDue l Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $100 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars Promo Code: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet Promo Code: Earn Up To $500 in Second-Chance Bets | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)