Will Pittsburgh use the historical benefit of being a victor in the First Four to its advantage against a defensively sound but volatile Iowa State team? Read on for our Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
No. 6 Iowa State (19-13) takes on Pitt (22-11) after the Panthers earned the No. 11 seed in gutsy fashion over Mississippi State on Tuesday. Iowa State is arguably a better version of the type of team Pitt just thwarted, so can the Panthers up their game a bit to hang with the Cyclones in the Round of 64?
Here is our best Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State odds
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State prediction
Since the inaugural season of the format in 2011, teams involved in the First Four have been prone to additional success later on in the NCAA Tournament. Every tournament but the 2019 edition saw at least one First Four team win a game in the Round of 64.
Check out our March Madness best bets for Friday! Our Mike Spector went 3-1 on Thursday's games.
Given the volatility of Iowa State this season, I'm banking on the potential for Pitt to be the next First Four success story. The Panthers gutted out a close win over Mississippi State on Tuesday, showing the valuable March ability to win ugly. Against a Cyclones team with the ninth-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, that may be a necessity in the next round for the Panthers.
Pitt's 24th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency could challenge the Cyclones, who went a mediocre 16-16 against the spread this season. The advantage on betting trends falls the way of the Panthers as Pitt is 10-4-1 ATS when playing as an underdog on the campaign.
Getting 4.5 points would allow Pitt to play a similar style of basketball as it did against Mississippi State while potentially escaping with the cover even if it can't come up with an outright win in the waning moments. Though Iowa State has a superior offense than the one Pitt just faced, it profiles similarly to the Bulldogs as a defense-first squad. Unless Iowa State comes out firing on all cylinders, I'm not sure I see a blowout win in its immediate future on Thursday.
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Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitt +4 | Pitt +4.5 | Pitt +3.5 | Pitt +4 | Pitt +4 |
| -110 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
BetMGM's -105 odds are attractive until you realize they're attached to the worst number on the board for a Pitt bettor at -3.5. Then we get a lot of symmetry between DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet, which all offer the Panthers at +4 with standard -110 odds.
Getting the hook to +4.5 while only paying a slight premium to -115 on the odds makes the FanDuel offering my preferred option for this wager. At anything less than +4.5, this recommendation reduces to three stars.
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State odds analysis
Iowa State opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to a consensus of -4.5 across our best sportsbooks as of Friday morning. This movement has come despite 61% of wagers falling on Pittsburgh's side.
The total opened at 130.5 and has seen slight movement upwa rd at a couple of our sports betting sites, maxing out around 131.5 at DraftKings. Roughly 55% of the wagers have come in on the Over.
Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State game info
- Date: Friday, March 17, 3:10 p.m. ET
- TV: TruTV
- Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
Pittsburgh-Iowa State pick made 3/15/2023 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
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