Today’s Pitcher Prop Picks For August 11
WagerTalk MLB player prop Expert Andy Lang provides his MLB pitcher prop picks and predictions for Friday, August 11 with odds provided by DraftKings. Get his best pitcher prop picks before first pitch!
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Pitcher Prop Prediction 1: Andrew Abbott Over 16.5 Recorded Outs (-130)
Cincinnati Reds rookie starting pitcher Andrew Abbott is in the midst of a stellar 2023 campaign with a 6-3 record, 2.93 ERA and 74 strikeouts across 70.2 innings of work.
He has recorded 17+ outs in 10 of his 12 (83%) starts on the season. This includes his last outing despite allowing 6 runs on 9 hits against the Washington Nationals.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 22nd in wRC+ (92), 20th in wOBA (.309) and 28th in ISO (.130).
They have struggled to score runs against the Cincinnati Reds with only 20 combined runs scored across 7 games.
The Reds were off yesterday but did need to utilize 6 different arms in the prior two days. Regardless Abbott has been a consistent over to this number this season and will face a lineup who doesn’t have a strong track record against southpaws. Take the Abbott over 16.5 outs tonight in Pittsburgh.
Pitcher Prop Prediction 2: Tarik Skubal Under 15.5 Recorded Outs (-130)
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has been pretty spot on since his return from an elbow injury in July with a 2-1 record, 3.67 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 33 strikeouts across 27 innings of work.
However, Skubal has been a consistent under to this “outs recorded” line, falling short of 16+ in 5 of 6 outings while landing on 16 exactly in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Skubal has also struggled on the road with 11 earned runs allowed across only 8.2 innings, resulting in a 11.42 road ERA and Fenway Park can be a pitcher’s nightmare.
Current Boston Red Sox have a great short term track record against Skubal, going 7-18 (.389) with a home run.
The Red Sox do have the 4th highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers during the last 30 days, but strike outs can sometimes fly in the face of stacking up outs.
Regardless, it seems like the Tigers organization is more than content with capping Skubal’s pitch count in the mid-80’s.
The Red Sox have a veteran group of patient sluggers who are smart enough to drive up Skubal’s pitch count and chase him from the game before the 6th inning.
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