Today’s Pitcher Prop Picks For July 17
WagerTalk MLB Player Prop Expert Andy Lang provides his MLB pitcher prop picks and predictions for Monday, July 17 with odds provided by DraftKings. Get his best pitcher prop picks before first pitch!
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Pitcher Prop Prediction 1: Miles Mikolas Over 16.5 Outs (-110)
St Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas is in the midst of an overall mediocre season with a 5-5 record, 4.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 80 strikeouts across 115.2 innings of work.
However, he has been a consistent innings-eater with 17 outs recorded in 12 of his last 15 starts. Mikolas had cleared this line in six straight games before only pitching three innings in his last outing against the Washington Nationals due to a rain delay.
Regardless, he has pitched 10 straight scoreless innings while allowing only four hits and zero walks. Mikolas has also been lights out against current Miami Marlin hitters as they bat .214 against him with only one homerun across 59 plate appearances.
The Marlins rank below across the board against right-handed pitching, and they only scored 11 runs while being swept by the Baltimore Orioles in three games this weekend. Mikolas has been outstanding in clearing this number throughout the season and this a plus matchup for him at only -110 odds.
Pitcher Prop Prediction 2: Drew Smyly Under 17.5 Outs (-130)
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly has been serviceable during his 2023 campaign with a 7-6 record, 4.31 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 79 strikeouts across 94 innings of work.
However, he has pitched very deep into games, falling short of six innings pitched in four straight and 12 of 18 games on the season. Smyly actually hasn’t recorded more than 15 outs in those last four outings. Smyly did pitch seven full innings in an outlier game against the Washington Nationals on May 1st.
However, he benefited from 10 ground ball outs in that contest, a mark he hasn’t matched yet this season. Nat’s hitters have actually feasted on Smyly over the course of their careers with a .310 batting average, .851 OPS and two home runs across 59 plate appearances.
The Nationals hitters have thrived against left-handed pitching, ranking 8th in wOBA & 16th in ISO compared to ranking 24th in wOBA & 29th in ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Smyly has been a consistent under on outs this season and there is no reason that shouldn’t continue tonight.
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