The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 7-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 11-9 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Hunter Greene | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -155 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.30 Units / 54% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 11-13 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -15.89% ROI).
- 7-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -29.48% ROI
- 16-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.25 Units / 34.84% ROI
- 6-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -44.4% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 11-9 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 8.07% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -13.76% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 4.49% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (267 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .401 (195-for-486) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .383 (543 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .303 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .406 (160 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .296 — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene had averaged 98.9 MPH on fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.