The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-185) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.

The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Pirates vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Pirates are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 12-7 ATS.

Pirates vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
• Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
• Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
• Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
• Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -9.9% ROI).

• 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -26.61% ROI
• 10-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 24.51% ROI
• 5-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -33.24% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 12-7 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 19.75% ROI).

• 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 28.81% ROI
• 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -4.09% ROI
• 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -4.29% ROI

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Ortiz walked 10 of 69 batters (14%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Luis Ortiz allowed an OPS of just .364 (46 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .705 — 99th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .136 (8-for-59) against Luis Ortiz over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.

Luis Ortiz allowed an OPS of just .481 (69 PA’s) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 92nd Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .161 (20-for-124) against Garrett Whitlock with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.

Garrett Whitlock has walked 11 of 239 left-handed batters (5%) since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 93rd Percentile.

Garrett Whitlock has walked 32 of 609 batters (5%) since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 12th best among among 160 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 93rd Percentile.

  
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