The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 1-4 ATS.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Red Sox vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 70 away games (+5.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 86 away games (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 86 games at home (+1.70 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 85 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -3.75% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 36% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -21.3% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.18% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 1-4 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -52% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -31.25% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 55.56% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -61.06% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .337 (64-for-190) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 45% (168/376) against Mitch Keller on non-fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (272 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .408 (448 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .324 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against Corey Kluber in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .381 (45-for-118) against Corey Kluber’s inside fastball since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 0 Percentile.