The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Pirates are 2-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 3-6 ATS.

Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -13.06% ROI).

• 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -48.83% ROI
• 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 44.55% ROI
• 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -50.68% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-6 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -32.72% ROI).

• 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -3.54% ROI
• 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 46.53% ROI
• 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -56.92% ROI

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (330/993) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.

Hitters chased just 45 of JT Brubaker’s 305 elevated fastballs out of the zone (15%) last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (655/1,230) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Hitters swung at 54% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (371/693) with two-strikes last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,694/3,826) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of the 2021 season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3

  
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