The Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Thursday, April 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Pirates are 5-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-2 ATS.

Pirates vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 0-0, 2.08 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray 0-1, 15.77 ERA

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Henry Davis has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.40 Units / 61% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 52% ROI)
• Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 99% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Josiah Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+6.10 Units / 203% ROI)
• Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 4 games (+5.10 Units / 127% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+5.05 Units / 65% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 5-1 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 61.82% ROI).

• 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 60% ROI
• 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 59.54% ROI
• 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -68.42% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -3.52% ROI).

• 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -2.97% ROI
• 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 53.21% ROI
• 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -62.16% ROI

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Martin Perez has allowed an OBP of .562 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — third Percentile.

Martin Perez has a strike rate of just 46% (12/26) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 14% (46/331) against Martin Perez in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (48/343) against Martin Perez since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.

28 of Josiah Gray’s 95 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 91 of 639 left-handed batters (14%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

  
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