The Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+115) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Pirates are 18-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 15-9 ATS.

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 57% ROI)
• Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.40 Units / 63% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
• Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+15.10 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 23 games (+15.05 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+13.60 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.40 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 103% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.35 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.95 Units / 20% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 17-9 against the Run Line (+7.1 Units / 20.52% ROI).

• 18-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 49.91% ROI
• 12-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -6.84% ROI
• 13-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.52% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 15-9 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 21.86% ROI).

• 9-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 5.42% ROI
• 10-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -11.11% ROI
• 12-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 4.11% ROI

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

7 of Rich Hill’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 66% of the time (89/135) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 86.9 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 57% of the time (59/103) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chad Kuhl has an ERA of 7.88 (64.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 3.91 — second Percentile.

Chad Kuhl has a strike rate of just 53% (139/261) in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

Chad Kuhl has a strike rate of just 55% (200/362) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

  
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