The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-115) on Monday, April 1, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.

This season, the Pirates are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 2-1 ATS.

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.10 Units / 64% ROI)
• Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.90 Units / 132% ROI)
• Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.40 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Josiah Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
• Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• MacKenzie Gore has hit the Strikeouts Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 63% ROI)
• MacKenzie Gore has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• Patrick Corbin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 41% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 72.8% ROI).

• 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 110.98% ROI
• 4-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI
• 0-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 2-1 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 10.84% ROI).

• 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -13.33% ROI
• 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI
• 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Marco Gonzales has averaged 88.6 MPH on fastballs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 52 PAs) in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 29% (137 SO in 467 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (64/359) against Marco Gonzales with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

MacKenzie Gore walked 22 of 168 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 33 of 260 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 94 of 891 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 63 of 688 right-handed batters (9%) since last season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 12th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

  
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