The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Pirates are 52-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 54-51 ATS.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 10-5, 3.38 ERA
• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Yilber Diaz 1-1, 5.53 ERA

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.40 Units / 149% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.90 Units / 49% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+25.70 Units / 107% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 61% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+14.55 Units / 73% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+12.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 60 games (+10.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+8.80 Units / 12% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 56-48 against the Run Line (+4.81 Units / 3.56% ROI).

• 52-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.99% ROI
• 46-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -11.59% ROI
• 54-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.38 Units / 3.86% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 54-51 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -2.38% ROI).

• 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.88% ROI
• 55-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.36% ROI
• 47-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -11.28% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (81 Total Bases / 162 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — seventh Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .290 (47-for-162) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .264 (176-for-667) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 12th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has walked 12 of 252 left-handed batters (5%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 91st Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yilber Diaz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 64 PAs) this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (17/107) against Yilber Diaz this month (3 games) — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.

Yilber Diaz has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 49% (22/45) of opposing batters this month (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

57% of Yilber Diaz’s strikeouts are looking this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

  
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