The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-175) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Pirates are 52-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 53-51 ATS.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 1-1, 2.70 ERA
• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 4-6, 3.72 ERA

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.40 Units / 149% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 15 games (+26.30 Units / 175% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+13.90 Units / 58% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 68% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+13.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 59 games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 56-47 against the Run Line (+6.21 Units / 4.65% ROI).

• 52-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.17% ROI
• 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -12.57% ROI
• 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.48 Units / 4.88% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 53-51 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -3.22% ROI).

• 54-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.12% ROI
• 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.51% ROI
• 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -10.41% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 12% (48 SO in 408 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has averaged 79.5 MPH on changeups since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 85.4 — second Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.7 MPH since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 17% (73 SO in 417 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (346/487) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of just .244 (21 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 94th Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OBP of just .230 (244 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 97th Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed three-ball counts to 10% of batters they faced (25/244 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

  
Read Full Article