The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-190) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 45-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 63-47 ATS.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s matchup with 59.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)
• Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.55 Units / 97% ROI)
• Josh VanMeter has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 45% ROI)
• Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 71 games (+24.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 51 of his last 74 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 63 games (+13.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 48 of his last 71 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.65 Units / 78% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 away games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 52 away games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 99 games (+16.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+14.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 60 games at home (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 58-53 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -1.6% ROI).

• 45-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.26% ROI
• 48-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -10.76% ROI
• 56-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.56% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 63-47 against the Run Line (+13.4 Units / 9.49% ROI).

• 50-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.18% ROI
• 50-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -8.47% ROI
• 55-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.74% ROI

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have chased just 74 of JT Brubaker’s 507 elevated fastballs out of the zone (15%) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (280/527) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (564/1,064) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (30/80) against JT Brubaker when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .241 (13-for-54) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 100th Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% (37/166) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 16th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 20% (73/366) against Merrill Kelly this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 15th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

  
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