The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-145) on Tuesday, September 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Pirates are 71-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 76-74 ATS.
Pirates vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 8-7, 4.22 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Lance Lynn 6-4, 3.94 ERA
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 28 games (+19.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+12.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.90 Units / 136% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.00 Units / 129% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games at home (+24.00 Units / 109% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+13.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 43 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 111 games (+10.67 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 73 games (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 65 away games (+6.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.73 Units / 8% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+4.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 80-70 against the Run Line (+5.58 Units / 2.88% ROI).
- 71-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.02 Units / -5.71% ROI
- 72-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -5.16% ROI
- 73-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.22 Units / -3.19% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 76-74 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -3.26% ROI).
- 75-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -5.35% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.02 Units / -8.55% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -0.76% ROI
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Luken Baker (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luken Baker (STL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Lance Lynn (STL) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (48/310) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (44/272) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (57/179) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 189 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (13/47) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 8% (1/13) against Lance Lynn this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Lance Lynn has a strike rate of just 59% (595/1,006) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Lance Lynn has a strike rate of just 61% (984/1,622) in two strike counts since last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (276/737) against Lance Lynn on elevated fastballs since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.