The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35am EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Pirates are 39-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 38-43 ATS.
Pirates vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 3-6, 4.02 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 1-3, 5.34 ERA
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 71 games (+18.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 67 games (+25.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.34 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+2.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 43-39 against the Run Line (+0.46 Units / 0.43% ROI).
- 39-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -6.68% ROI
- 37-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -8.48% ROI
- 41-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.13 Units / 1.26% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 38-43 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -5.55% ROI).
- 46-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.6 Units / -6.91% ROI
- 29-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.2 Units / -27.36% ROI
- 49-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 19.09% ROI
Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (47/139) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has struck out just 15% (39/263) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .272 (34-for-125) against Bailey Falter when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (111/581) against Bailey Falter this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.