The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Pirates are 39-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 37-42 ATS.

Pirates vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-3, 4.77 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 4-4, 4.29 ERA

Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.65 Units / 10% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 65 games (+23.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.34 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 42-38 against the Run Line (+0.56 Units / 0.53% ROI).

• 39-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -4.69% ROI
• 37-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -6.31% ROI
• 39-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.87 Units / -1% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 37-42 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -5.68% ROI).

• 44-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -8.56% ROI
• 29-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.1 Units / -25.59% ROI
• 47-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.15 Units / 17.3% ROI

Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .833 (45 Total Bases / 54 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .431 — 0 Percentile.

Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 54% of the time (206/381) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (33/233) against Martin Perez on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (44/268) against Martin Perez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (222/400) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (337/762) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 43 of 387 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (222/400) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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